MIPS

Vem är näst största ägaren?

Marknadsposition: Cykel – verkar vara på väg att börja dominera. Sålde 1,6 miljoner enheter 2016. Gissar att det dubblas till i år? Världsmarknaden verkar vara i storleksordningen 30 miljoner enheter.

Marknadsposition skidor: Verkar vara hyfsat känt bland inbitna skidåkare. Mer tester bör kunna driva lite ökad adoption.

Marknadsposition ridning: Verkar vara på väg.

Marknadsposition MC: Verkar på g.

Marknad polis etc – känns inte som rotation är huvudproblemet? Skeptisk.

Acquisitions: vilken typ av företag kan det vara? Kandidater: Hövding? Hjälmföretag?

Aktieinnehav: Verkar finnas bra incitament i ledning, lite mindre i styrelse.

Hur tolka att största kunderna också är ägare – vad säger det om prisbilden? Tänker här att det förmodligen inte finns så stor potential att få upp priset. Det kan nog vara färdigförhandlat för överskådlig tid med åtminstone de största märkena. Bell och Giro, Fox Racing mfl. Istället är det växa antalet enheter som gäller.

 

Update

Have got a feeling of slight confusion, indecisiveness in my investing this year. This has led to an unfocused portfolio. The risks have spread into more categories. Can be logical. It is unlikely to perform great, but will also not be a catastrophe.

Right now my allocation is about 90% in long, 5% in high yield and 4-5% short. This is still agressive and my plan is to decrease this to 60-70% long during the year.

On the stock selection side I have increased holdings in insurer, Storebrand, Sampo and a small position in Fairfax. The prime reason is to decrease the interest rate sensitivity in the portfolio. Currently these two are about 12% of the portfolio together.

DDM holding is currently the largest position, about 10%. I’m comfortable with the valuation here. Management continue to build a track record of executing on plan. Borrowing costs are trending down, portfolio size is growing and fixed costs are close to flat. A large purchase in greece has been announced. It seems likely to be at a cheap price in this seemingly unmature market. Europe will stop Greece from bleeding too badly. With Brexit and similar feelings in the east (Hungary/Poland) Greece is likely to be pushed along a string, in my opinion.

Another large position is Bahnhof, also ~10%. In hindsight I should’ve sold this more agressively when the Elementica sales process failed. At current prices I think it’s decently valued and has a low downside risk. I’m prepared to sell if I find another bargain and am short on cash.

The high yield is mostly Volvo reseller in Russia, Ferronordic Machines. Yielding ~11%. The interest rate sensitivity is limited due to planned floating of common stock and redemption of these preference shares as well as increasing dividend. I’m currently feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the political risk in Russia. Fueled by studying history, seeing all the lies and corruption and seeing the same attitudes in place today in the leadership. What will happen when Putin dies? Knowing historical figures of the sensitivity of trade to political events would be useful here. For the moment I will see it is a likely 0 given a default due to increased sactions or a civil unrest/war in Russia.

I have experimented with cryptocurrencies during the year. Currently have a small win in total. For now I’m happy to hold a miniscule stash on coinbase where there are no fees and I don’t have to see the price which fluctuates wildly.

I have a few new bets in the Life science sector. MIPS, Immunovia and Raysearch. More thoughts in another post.

So far the portfolio is up 19% on the year, a few % more than the index.